A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
