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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.